Bareun Development
Research archive

A record of how we judge the market

These reports set out the analysis and the evidence behind our advisory work. They hold the view taken in 2024 and have not been updated since.

Published in 2024

Publications

A grid of windows on a curving office facade

Research · Macro Research

Policy Scenarios for a Second Trump Term and the Impact on Asset Markets

  • The proposed 10% tariff on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods would push up import prices and erode private consumption
  • The National Pension Service manages USD 783 billion and the Korea Investment Corporation targets 25% in alternative assets by 2025. The shift into alternatives is continuing
Proposed baseline tariff on all imports
10%
Proposed tariff on China
60%
National Pension Service assets under management
USD 783 billion
July 2024 · 12 min read
Aerial photograph looking straight down at parcels divided by straight boundaries

Research · Investment Methodology

Commercial Real Estate Investment Decisions: A Top-Down Framework

  • The composite leading index from the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) stood at 113.7 in January 2024, and its gradual climb continues
  • Office vacancy rates are falling, and corporate purchases for owner occupation account for a growing share of buyers
March 2024 · 9 min read
Order of analysis

Research and advisory follow the same order of review

Everything starts from public statistics: where the economy is headed, what rates are doing, where the cycle stands, and only then the individual asset.

Read the top-down framework report
  1. 01

    Reading the economic structure

    We look at whether the economy is heading into recession or turning toward recovery.

    • Recession indicators
    • OECD leading indicators
    • KOSIS composite leading index 113.7
  2. 02

    Inflation and interest rates

    Property carries heavy borrowing, so we track how funding conditions change.

    • US federal funds rate · PCE
    • Inflation expectations
    • BOK Base Rate
  3. 03

    Position in the business cycle

    Whether recovery is just beginning or already mid-course decides how favorable an entry point is.

    • Real GDP growth
    • Composite economic index
    • KOSIS business cycle clock
  4. 04

    Commercial real estate: conditions and judgment

    We check whether the earlier conclusions line up with rent indicators and the structure of transactions.

    • Rent index
    • Vacancy rate
    • Transaction share by buyer type
Business inquiries

We review the property as it stands today

If you are weighing an acquisition or a disposal, tell us the asset and the purpose. We recheck current indicators and the condition of the property, then set the scope of advice.

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